Financial Markets and European politicians hold their breath. This Thursday, Sept. 6, the European Central Bank (ECB) should reveal the decisions it will take to help countries in the euro zone hit by the crisis and save the monetary union. The political and economic actors expect particularly whether the ECB will buy the sovereign debt of countries in the euro area.
"The ECB is willing to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough, "said in July, in a speech scrutinized, the president of the institution, Mario Draghi, suggesting a se , series of strong measures.
This strength from a highly respected financial community had the immediate effect of calming the markets, at the same time borrowing rates in Spain and the & rsquo , Italy reached critical levels. The month of August, according to the predictions of many economic analysts, promised catastrophic market, finally took place without too much addicted.
Reassure the banks
Today, the Frankfurt institution should revise downward its growth forecasts for the euro area, there are many who wonder if the decisions of the ECB will be as strong as this that & rsquo , hope the markets. Among the measures foreshadowed: the acquisition of a number of debts incurred by the states in trouble, like what was done in May 2010 for Greece. The goal is to give banks assurance that their loans will be repaid and thus encourage them to lower borrowing rates they impose on states (more risky the loan is, the more expensive).
A quick fix? Not quite. Some countries, especially Germany, are strongly opposed to any buyback program sovereign bonds. She fears one hand, some countries in difficulty loosen fiscal and economic forces – although the ECB requires increased consolidation of public finances, in consideration for the redemption of debt – and, Moreover, this commitment causes of inflation across the euro area. The topic is so sensitive in Germany believe that the German newspaper "Bild", he almost caused the resignation of Jens Weidmann, the president of the very orthodox Bundesbank, the German central bank . Chancellor Angela Merkel was dissuaded, but tension remains high.
"Irrational Fears"
The outcry of Germany has also pushed Mario Draghi to leap to defend its policy through the press, which is unusual for him. Monetary policy "sometimes requires extraordinary measures," including "when markets are fragmented and influenced by irrational fears," he said in an article published August 29 in the German weekly "Die Zelt".
For now, markets and policy makers are forced to wait anxiously statements of the ECB. If they are below expectations, the most fragile countries in the euro zone could pay a high price. Italy and Spain, which has requested assistance from 100 billion euros to recapitalize its banks, are particularly vulnerable.
"Those who expect explicit details will be disappointed," said already Marco Valli, chief economist at UniCredit euro zone. The ECB may indeed not reveal the outline of a plan to buy back debt. She could wait before going into details, the German Constitutional Court to make its decisions on six complaints from members opposed to the ratification of the mechanism European stability (MES), two new European instruments to fight against the crisis. Its findings should be made public on September 12.